1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund - Predictions, Stats & Odds
Bundesliga Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 25
Goals
Game Review
Borussia Dortmund secured a hard-fought 2-1 victory over 1. FC Köln in their Bundesliga clash on Saturday, 7 March 2026. The match, held at Köln's home ground, saw Dortmund maintain their strong form, while Köln's late rally was not enough to salvage a point. The game started with Dortmund asserting their dominance early on. Sehrou Guirassy (GAP +3.5%) opened the scoring in the 16th minute, capitalizing on a defensive lapse from Köln. Dortmund continued to press, and their efforts paid off again in the 60th minute when Maximilian Beier (GAP +2.8%) doubled their lead, putting them in a commanding position. Köln's task was made even more difficult just before halftime when Jahmai Simpson-Pusey received a red card, leaving the home side with ten men for the entire second half. Despite the numerical disadvantage, Köln showed resilience and managed to pull one back in the 88th minute through Jakub Kamiński (GAP +0.4%), setting up a tense finish. In terms of tactical adjustments, Borussia Dortmund's head coach made several changes, bringing in Niklas Sule, Fábio Silva, Yan Couto, Jobe Bellingham, and Karim Adeyemi as substitutes to maintain their lead and inject fresh legs into the game. Köln's manager also made tactical changes, introducing Dominique Heintz, Marius Bülter, and Cenk Özkacar in an attempt to bolster their attack and defense. The Game Advantage Percentage (GAP) statistics highlighted some standout performances. Gregor Kobel (GAP +5.1%) was instrumental in goal for Dortmund, making crucial saves to deny Köln a comeback. Waldemar Anton (GAP +5.8%) and Daniel Svensson (GAP +5.2%) also contributed significantly to Dortmund's defensive solidity. This result sees Borussia Dortmund continue their pursuit of the Bundesliga title, maintaining pressure on the league leaders. For Köln, the defeat leaves them needing to regroup and focus on their upcoming fixtures to avoid slipping further down the table. The red card incident and their inability to capitalize on late chances will be areas of concern for the Köln manager as they prepare for their next match.
Lineups
1. FC Köln
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD | |
| UNK |
Substitutes
| 46' | Cenk Özkacarfor Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 86' | Dominique Heintzfor Tom Krauß |
| 86' | Marius Bülterfor Ragnar Ache |
Borussia Dortmund
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD | |
| FWD |
Substitutes
| 61' | Fábio Silvafor Sehrou Guirassy |
| 61' | Yan Coutofor Julian Ryerson |
| 82' | Karim Adeyemifor Maximilian Beier |
| 82' | Niklas Sulefor Ramy Bensebaini |
| 90' | Jobe Bellinghamfor Felix Nmecha |
League Table after the game
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 25 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 53 | 26 | +27 | 55 | W W D L W |
| 14 | 1. FC Köln | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 24 | L L D L L |
Last Games
Head-to-Head
Bundesliga
Gameweek 25
What is GAP?
What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?
Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.
What is GAP?
GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.